Factors affecting the fundamental analysis of the Forex ...

Dollar smiles again. Forecast as of 11.11.2020

Dollar smiles again. Forecast as of 11.11.2020
While the EURUSDbulls wonder why the price isn’t rising, the bears see the reasons for a deeper correction. What’s next? Let us discuss the Forex outlook and make up a EURUSD trading plan.

Monthly US dollar fundamental forecast

It is impossible to predict market trends. The market is unpredictable; it can always surprise us. The EURUSD bulls are surprised because the pair doesn’t grow. There should be several reasons for the euro growth. Joe Biden has won the US presidential election; there is positive news about the COVID-19 vaccines. Investors should have started selling the dollar. However, the greenback remains strong, encouraging traders to buy the USD.
Jefferies notes that the USD closed in the red zone six months out of the last seven, having been down by 11%. The dollar’s surge on November 9 proves that most of the negative had been priced in the quotes, and the greenback will hardly start falling now. The central bank in Europe and Asia, which compete with the Fed, are willing to provide an extra monetary stimulus, which is a bearish factor for their local currencies. Jefferies sees the EURUSD falling to 1.14 as the dollar smile theory is popular again. It suggests the USD should strengthen at the final, third stage of the economic cycle because the US GDP outperforms the global peers.
Even though the next two quarters, according to the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan, will be tough for the US, it should demonstrate robust growth in 2021. Unlike Europe, the USA does not impose a lockdown, and the restrictions introduced in the euro-area countries are costly. For example, each month of helping businesses and workers in Italy affected by COVID-19 will cost Rome €10 billion. If the restrictions last through March, it will cost €40 billion - €50 billion, or 3% of GDP. Furthermore, the PMIs and other indicators are falling, which is confirmed by a decrease in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany to the lowest level since April.

Dynamics of German economic sentiment index


Source: Bloomberg
The epidemiological situation in the euro area deteriorates. The ECB estimates that one in seven workers in Spain is associated with a business at risk of collapse, which compares with 8% of employees in Germany and France, and 10% - in Italy. The divergence in economic growth is in favor of the USA, which presses down the EURUSD.
And what about Biden’s victory and coronavirus vaccines? I believe the first driver has already worked out, which is evident from the euro drop on November 9. There is still much uncertainty around vaccines. Nobody can say how quickly they will be introduced and how long the immunity will last. The market needs time. The US stock indexes could be overvalued and will be unstable in the next few weeks. Besides, the positive news about COVID-19 vaccines will give Republicans a reason to delay or adopt a smaller fiscal stimulus than previously anticipated.

Monthly EURUSD trading plan

The euro should be strong in the long-term outlook, but it should weaken in the short term. Under such conditions, one could buy the EURUSD at the breakout of the resistance at 1.192. It will be relevant to sell the euro-dollar if the price breaks out the support at 1.179.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/dollar-smiles-again-forecast-as-of-11112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates

Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates
There are many factors affecting the medium and long-term trend of the FOREX market, including interest rates, gross domestic product (GDP), US non-farm payrolls (NFP), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), durable goods orders, claims for unemployment benefits, industrial production index, trade balance, unemployment rate, retail sales, etc. Differences between published data and expectations will have different impacts on currency pairs.

https://preview.redd.it/kxj0i948pf951.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=928f9480dd6d50f81363c544da70671b86fdf686
The NFP of the US is one of the important factors affecting FOREX. Increases in NFP and average wages indicate that employment growth and potential inflationary pressure have increased. In many cases, the Fed will inhibit them by hiking interest rates, benefiting the US dollar. On the other hand, NFP's continual decline would mean that the economy is slowing down to some extent, leading to an increase in likelihood of reduced interest rates and hurting the US dollar.
In addition, decisions of central banks' in different countries on interest rates are another important factor that affects FOREX. In the US, for example, interest rates are determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Interest rate decisions are important because central banks in different countries will formulate monetary policy and interest rate decisions based on a combination of economic growth, domestic inflation and unemployment. Therefore, interest rate decisions determines a country's path of interest rates for a period of time in the future.
If the central bank in a country decides to lower interest rates, future returns on cash deposits will fall, causing local currency funds to flow from banks to the market, encouraging investment and consumption, and boosting economic growth. At the same time, the market demand for the country's currency will drop due to lower yields, increasing the currency's depreciation pressure. In contrast, a rise in the interest rate will increase borrowing costs, and reduce the liquidity in the market. Therefore, it has the effect of suppressing consumption and curbing inflation. Meanwhile, higher yields will attract more money converted into the country's currency, increasing the likelihood of currency appreciation.

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Trading economic news

The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases.
This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.

How economic news is released

First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020.
In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots.
No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners.
Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup.
Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price!
Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!

How the news affects forex markets

Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent.
It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast.
Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators.
Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market.
The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US.
Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com.
Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles.
I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.
USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present)
USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present)
The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all.
For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected.
The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up.
I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.

Backtesting

So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report.
Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters.
Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk.
Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not.
Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one.
The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest.
Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered.
I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized.
For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade.
Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot.
Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from.
Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade.
That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.

Make it real

If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day.
Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved.
Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world.
I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
submitted by thicc_dads_club to Forex [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Poor management will kill dollar

EUUSD forecast: Poor management will kill dollar

Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today

EUUSD pair is being corrected, but the euro uptrend is strong

You can take all my factories, all my capital, everything I have from me. But leave me five of my best managers, and before you know it, I’ll be ahead of everyone else again. One of the richest men of the 19th century, Andrew Carnegie, was right. Success in business depends on efficient management. Forex trading is also a business. The strength of a currency is determined also by efficient management. The euro-area used to envy the USA that could afford to redistribute financial resources from strong states to weak ones. Only the pandemic has forced the EU to abandon the principle “at court everyone is for himself.” It has immediately influenced the EUUSD.
In the modern world, a bet on a currency is a bet on the control over the coronavirus. However, Congress failed to agree on the extension of the program of weekly unemployment benefits that officially expired on July 31, leaving more than 25 million people without support. In Europe, however, the rich North provides aid for the poor South. So, the management in the euro-area seems to be more effective. Financial analysts suggest that poor management could kill the US dollar.
In August, the USD index has featured the worst drop over almost two years. The bear speculative
sentiment in the derivatives market is as strong as in April 2018.

Dynamics of US dollar speculative positions

Source: Wall Street Journal.
As I suggested earlier, weak data on European GDPs triggered the EUUSD correction. However, amid the divergence in the epidemiological environment, the euro-area economy is likely to recover sooner than the US growth. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has even suggested a fresh lockdown for 4 – 6 weeks. Allegedly, the US Congress can afford it.
The euro-area GDP in the April-May period fell by 40.3% on an annual basis, which, compared with the same period of 2019, seems to be a more dramatic drop than the US GDP drop by 32.9%. However, population support programs will continue in 2021; the worst-affected regions, including Italy, performed better than expected. The control over the coronavirus relieves fear, which is a key factor in the economic recovery trend.

Dynamics of European GDPs

Source: Bloomberg
Of course, there are many problems in the euro area. The European economy is much dependent on exports and tourism, which makes foreign demand a very important factor. Under the current conditions, it could slow down the economic recovery. Besides, the number of coronavirus cases has increased amid the end of the lockdown in some parts of the region, including Spain.
The epidemiological situation in the US is difficult, the management is poor. Besides, the US even now, when all the countries try to unite to solve a common problem, continues its attacks on China trying to please the ambitions of the White House. All these factors support the idea of the strong EUUSD uptrend. It makes sense to use the drawdowns to 1.173, 1.168, and 1.162 to enter long-term purchases.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-poor-management-will-kill-dolla?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

How Do The Forex Signals Make Currency Trading Easier

Forex trading requires a lot of market research and study on regular basis. What makes it even more difficult to stay up-to-date to recent market updates is the fact that forex exchange markets are affected by minute global news and cues the traders receive from various parts of the world. Currency is a volatile element in trading, which makes it a risky, yet lucrative trading opportunity.
There are various Automatic Forex Trading platforms that provide easy forex trading by spotting trading opportunities for the users and intimidating them on time. These automatic forex management systems also carry out all the market analysis on the trader's behalf and perform calculations and market research more effectively than a trader can do manually. Above all, most automated forex trading platforms are either available for free or on free trial basis. The user can subscribe to the paid features once he is satisfied with the free features, services and customer care of the service provider.
Most of the automatic forex platforms provide free forex signal service that includes updating the traders about forex indicator, current currency quotes, currency pair comparisons, trading history and currency's past performance. All these factors are essentials for traders who wish to execute forex trading successfully. There are, however, some expert Forex Signal Provider services that make available latest market trends and updates on preferred currencies. Forex signal services are quite effective as they help the trader save a lot of time that is otherwise spent in watching the markets from close. Trading is one profession that doesn't even let you sleep because of anxiety and stress, but The Forex Signals make everything so easy when you know you have left the critical job to the experts who are keeping a watch on the markets for you. They keep you informed with recent updates that make some difference to your portfolio and you do not actually have to waste a lot of your precious time in market study and research. They have automated systems and programs that pick up the best trading opportunities based on the preferences mentioned by the usetrader and notify the trader about it though SMS or email, whichever is preferred by the user.
Free forex updates come quite handy when is comes to accessibility and reaching out to the trader. Most traders do not believe in market updates but when the services come for free and turn out to be quite realistic when observed, many traders opt for top Forex Signal providers that are available online at nominal prices. There is one popular automated forex trading platform called i forex that not only provides automatic forex trading, but also sends out appropriate forex signal to the subscribers.
There are many traders and investors who take up trading as a part-time occupation. Because they are stuck up with their job or business during working hours, it gets a little difficult to keep a market watch while the market is still open. This is when forex signals and automatic trading platforms come to play and help the traders in an extensive way.
submitted by RoundConstant to nonrepaintmt4forexin [link] [comments]

2020 Foresight: What to do to Protect and Profit in Bear Market.

2020 Foresight: What to do to Protect and Profit in Bear Market.
Not many people like to talk about bear markets, especially not when the more emotive terms such as "Stock market crash" are used. It's often looked upon as fear mongering, and sensationalism. Preparation is practical, though.

This post is not intended to be fear mongering. In fact I want to discuss ways we can look at the market and plan for different scenarios that can mean we have no reason to be afraid.
Even if the S&P500 was to trade at 1,000 (big drop from current price (Today is the 31st August 2019, price is 2,946), we can plan and act in such ways this is a non harmful event for us. Particularly those who have net worth's to protect that has heavy stocks exposure.
This is not going to be one of these, "It's the top RIGHT NOW ... everyone panic!" sort of posts. Regardless of my views on this, I know this is a message that would not be well received. You do not know me, and too often people have cried wolf on this and been laughably incorrect. Instead what I will do is describe price moves in the indices that most people will have every reason to believe at this point can't happen.
Hopefully, they do not happen. I am not gleefully fangirling for a market crash. I just think there is prudence in preparation. These events will not happen in the hours after I post this, so I'd ask you kindly suspend prejudices. There is nothing to be gained by bickering over opinions of whether this will happen or not. I just want to give my perspective on how a person should protect themselves after it happens, if it does.
I'll cover some of the things I'd forecast will be points people will want to raise or questions likely to be asked. If you'd like to skip to the forecast and subsequent trade plan you can scroll down to the line break (unless you're going to make a common comment, then please read the following section first).

Why Do I think My Opinion Matters?

Many of you may be smarter than I in many ways, but few of you will have spent as much time assessing charting patterns as I have. Indeed, many people will scoff at the very idea of "lines on a chart" being worth anything. I'm not here to have this debate, I fully agree your view point is rational and logical. If I'd not spent years watching price charts every day, I'd think the same.
I focus mostly on Forex markets. I know these well. There are many ways currencies look like they may move that are ways they should not move unless there is big problems in stocks. These are nagging warnings. The attitude to risk in the Forex markets is negative, and stock markets show dangerous patterns. I watch these topping sorts of patterns every day. I see them in intra-day crashes, intra-week crashes and intra-month crashes.
Most major moves fit into these patterns, and when the same patterns are applied to previous stock markets in the months before they crashed, the way the patterns form and then complete (in a crash) is the same. From my perspective, these are just intra-decade crashes. There is little technical difference on the charts - although it's very different in the real world it affects.
This is why I am doing this in a "IF we see this ... then this is likely". I know at this point in the pattern, my methods predict something that will be highly unusual. If that thing happens, if we do not crash after that, we'd be breaking the trend of all market crashes in history (this is not likely, it does not seem the smart way to bet your net worth).

Technical Analysis is Tea Leaves!


You're welcome to your opinion on this, and I do understand your point of view. I will not post examples to try and prove my perspective on it, since it will always be called "curve-fitting". All I will say is nothing I have done in my years of trading has involved me persuading others what I do works. I do not sell training or anything of the like. I've spent many years using the things I've learned to bet my own money, and I've done well.
I will not debate on this subject, because it's always a deadlock. You can not convince me I've not seen what I've seen, and I can not show you what I've seen, and do not expect you to believe it without proof.

Stop Fear Mongering!


I really would like to re-iterate, I do not want you to be afraid. I am going to describe something that might happen that will be scary if it does happen. If it does not, there is no problem. I do not wish you to be fearful before, during or after.

This is like "Stop, Drop and Roll". None of us ever expect to be ablaze. If we are, this is good information. It will be better than running about waving arms and feeding the flames to engulf us. All I want to do here is to give you the "stop, drop and roll" of a market crash. To prevent you panicking and making bad decisions at bad areas. To allow you instead to go, "Fuck! Okay ... well that's not good. Now I have to ..." if scary things do happen.

No One Can Time the Market!

People have predicted and traded every stock market crash in history. The fact that many people try this and get it wrong does not take away from the fact people get this right, then place the right trades and make millions. Not many people make understanding the ways a market moves their life's work. If you do, you get a good feel for it's mood at any given time.

[Fundamental Analysis ] Says That Won't Happen!

I am not here to debate analysis viewpoints. Doing so has little use, it's better to forecast, assess and then take the best actions. I'll confess I am too ignorant on many of these topic to engage in debate. I wake up every day 5 days a week and decide where to bet my money. In doing this, I've found charts forecast and news reports. I can find no way of making money by being told what happened already, so I use the charts.
What I will say is for the warning move I will discuss to happen, something news related will have to change. Some catalyst event will have to happen. In 2008, it was Lehman. Make no mistake, the warnings were on the chart long before the bankruptcy was in the news.

Time in the Markets is Better than Timing the Markets


I am perfectly fine with this perspective, and not here to argue against it. If the market could drop 50% or more and you'd not be concerned because you think it will be back up in 10 years, this is none of my business.
I'm a day trader, so for me personally timing the markets is everything. Spending a lot of time in the market day trading often means you've made a mistake. I'm looking for ways to get foresight into what market moves may develop and understanding of what times and conditions I can enter into these moves to profit from the.
I want to stress I am not necessarily advocating the average person tries to time the markets. In the same way an electrician would not suggest you re-wire your own home. You also could not say to the electrician it's better to leave the lights off than risk getting a shock. Different preparations and skills sets give different possibilities. I spent a lot of years and lost money through a lot of them starting out learning how to do this.
The things I will explain here will not allow a person to consistently time the market. If I may be excused a cheesy pun, this "crash course" will be dealing with only single event, and one single set of scenarios. What I want to put forward for you in this is price moves to watch for and then (really quite specific) levels of price that are likely to offer us the best prices to protect long stock portfolios, or take speculative short trades. Very thin area of assessment.


Forecast and Plan.

What if the S&P500 Went to 2,200 ... Quickly?


It's the weekend, and the last day of August in 2019. The S&P500 has closed 2922 after rallying through the week after some sharp drops from all time highs. We may see record highs again if this keeps up ... but what if next week it opens and starts to fall? Or maybe rallies higher but can not make a new high and starts to fall.
What if it falls faster than it did in the last drop, and what if this time it does not stop? What if it gets to the lows of 2790, and goes from there quickly to 2700. These big levels act as resistance and the market can not trade higher than them. Instead it hits them, reverses and goes down more.

I think people would be nervous, but there'd be still the feeling of this being a normal, albeit tough, corrective move. There's weekly lows of 2,333. Above here the market is still technically up-trending. What if we got there, and the market went through it like it was nothing? What if the coming weeks or months we seen candles bigger than any we've seen recently? What if we were hearing news reports of record falls, rather than record highs?
What if over the development of only weeks and some horrific trading days we went from today's 2922 to break under the 2015 lows of 1,886?
I think people would be afraid!
Nothing I am saying is for the purposes of fear mongering, but I think this is possible. I'd like to say I think it's "highly unlikely", but I am thinking a lot about how to structure real bets on it and I like my odds. If this happens, it's likely the market will go lower still. What you do during the following weeks and months may have a huge affect on your financial health by the start of 2021.

How Does This Scenario Look on a S&P500 Chart?



https://preview.redd.it/ggqyvs2f6xj31.png?width=658&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9d00d758caf655341bd4780a8277b7556546a50

That looks like it's not going to happen, right? I think that this looks like it's not going to happen. We learn through our life experience, and my life experience has taught me when I ignore what I think about things like this and build well structured trade plans that would assume it will happen, money comes. For me, this makes sense to bet on at the moment, as unlikely as it looks. That's getting a bit into "Calling the high", though. \Which this is not about.

This is about what do you do if this happens? What if there is a day when they say on the news that the market just made it's lowest point in the last five years ... and economists and experts say it can go down more!

1 - Filter and assess your sources.
Before you act or even think about the information these sources have (pertaining to what trades to make or expect), check what they were saying now. If they're not saying this could happen - don't worry too much about what they say happens next. They have as much chance of being wrong.

2 - Do not panic.
This is a time to remain calm. Bad things have happened, and there will have been multiple days the market has dropped precipitously. Different economic factors explaining these moves may be threatening to get worse and the market may take more dangerous swings spiking under recent lows. This is the point at which most people will panic and make bad choices with their portfolio.

3 - Buy Around 1,800
This obviously sounds like something anyone would do right now, with price at 2,922; but with the conditions that'd have to be occurring for this of move to happen will make this highly counter intuitive at the time.

4 - Understand Something Changed, New Highs are Not Coming
From peak pessimism around 1,800 I expect the market to start to rally. Rallying strong. Making markets great again.
At this point, you should understand something has changed. The market is not meant to trade at that level in an up-trend. Frequently when these levels 'break', there is a strong counter move that is fierce. It's also brief. We can buy here and offset some of the losses in the mini bounce (but be very cautious).
2,129 area is where the danger of a bear move comes back in. It might rally a bit above here into 2,333.

This is where the second mistake many people will make will be. Not buying the lows, but then starting to buy into this rally thinking it's going to new highs.

Very Important: If price makes moves consistent with what I've described 2,220 - 2,300 are hedge areas.
If you take appropriate actions in these areas you can protect yourself from the chance of excessive loss if the market is to crash in 2020. You can also do this without taking on much risk. Granted if you hedge long portfolios there is some risk of losing a little, but your area of risk on these hedges is less than the area of risk on a long portfolio after this has happened.
When this has happened, historically it's always led to a crash in the coming months/year. We'll have done something the markets do not usually do. Big corrections may look similar, but when you deal with this all the time, you come to know there are specifics that should be noted. If the levels I've mentioned for a buy fill, the market is crashing. It's no longer a question of if.

5 - Hold Hedges Until 1,100

If we crash, the low will probably be only a bit below this level. Anything more than this in a fall would be truly horrific (I know many people think this is horrific, but from a technical point of view this is really to be expected, and not unusual. It only happens after long periods of time, so it's unexpected and uncommon. It not unusual in trend formation).

https://preview.redd.it/puc4slkk6xj31.png?width=662&format=png&auto=webp&s=69e219ba15beddd6bbc944898efa8bce74cd3c85
I am not a financial adviser, and can not tell you any trades you should be making to hedge portfolios or to take speculative positions. I've given these levels on the S&P500, and there are many things correlated to this you could use to protect portfolios. If this happens, I will be very much 'In the trenches'. I'll be trading in various markets every day and sharing some of my insights and trade plans, but I can't tell you specifically what to do.


I am only sharing this with you to let you know there are strategies people have used in the past to predict crashes, and I've used these strategies a lot and become good with them. They now predict a market crash starting in 2019, developing through 2020, and the things I've explained in this post would be the next steps if the prediction is accurate.
If the next steps happen, the strategy would then forecast the S&P500 to go from 2,200 - 2,400 sort of range to 1,000.
I am asking no one to take this seriously at the moment, but I would suggest if the market makes moves similar to what I've described - you then consider there may be a lot of merit to what it further forecasts. Things could look very different from how they do this weekend in a few weekends time.
submitted by whatthefx to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

3.3 How to implement strategies in M language

3.3 How to implement strategies in M language

Summary

In the previous article, we explained the premise of realizing the trading strategy from the aspects of the introduction of the M language , the basic grammar, the model execution method, and the model classification. In this article, we will continue the previous part, from the commonly used strategy modules and technologies. Indicators, step by step to help you achieve a viable intraday quantitative trading strategy.

Strategy Module


https://preview.redd.it/a4l7ofpuwxs41.png?width=1517&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f97ea5a7316edd434a47067d9b76c894577d01d

Stage Increase

Stage increase is calculating the percentage of current K line's closing price compare with previous N periods of closing price's difference. For example: Computing the latest 10 K-lines stage increases, can be written:
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CLOSE_0:=CLOSE; //get the current K-line's closing price, and save the results to variable CLOSE_0. CLOSE_10:=REF(CLOSE,10); //get the pervious 10 K-lines' closing price, and save the results to variable CLOSE_10 (CLOSE_0-CLOSE_10)/CLOSE_10*100;//calculating the percentage of current K line's closing price compare with previous N periods of closing price's difference. 

New high price

The new high price is calculated by whether the current K line is greater than N cycles' highest price. For example: calculating whether the current K line is greater than the latest 10 K-lines' highest price, can be written:
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HHV_10:=HHV(HIGH,10); //Get the highest price of latest 10 K-lines, which includes the current K-line. HIGH>REF(HHV_10,1); //Judge whether the current K-line's highest price is greater than pervious K-lines' HHV_10 value. 

Price raise with massive trading volume increase

For example: If the current K line's closing price is 1.5 times of the closing price of the previous 10 K-lines, which means in 10 days, the price has risen 50%; and the trading volume also increased more than 5 times of the pervious 10 K-lines. can be written:
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CLOSE_10:=REF(CLOSE,10); //get the 10th K-line closing price IS_CLOSE:=CLOSE/CLOSE_10>1.5; //Judging whether the current K Line closing price is 1.5 times greater than the value of CLOSE_10 VOL_MA_10:=MA(VOL,10); //get the latest 10 K-lines' average trading volume IS_VOL:=VOL>VOL_MA_10*5; //Judging whether the current K-line's trading volume is 5 times greater than the value of VOL_MA_10 IS_CLOSE AND IS_VOL; //Judging whether the condition of IS_CLOSE and IS_VOL are both true. 

Price narrow-shock market

Narrow-shock market means that the price is maintained within a certain range in the recent period. For example: If the highest price in 10 cycles minus the lowest price in 10 cycles, the result divided by the current K-line's closing price is less than 0.05. can be written:
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HHV_10:=HHV(CLOSE,10); //Get the highest price in 10 cycles(including current K-line) LLV_10:=LLV(CLOSE,10); //Get the lowest price in 10 cycles(including current K-line) (HHV_10-LLV_10)/CLOSE<0.05; //Judging whether the difference between HHV_10 and LLV_10 divided by current k-line's closing price is less than 0.05. 

Moving average indicates bull market

Moving Average indicates long and short direction, K line supported by or resisted by 5,10,20,30,60 moving average line, Moving average indicates bull market or bear market. can be written:
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MA_5:=MA(CLOSE,5); //get the moving average of 5 cycle closing price. MA_10:=MA(CLOSE,10);//get the moving average of 10 cycle closing price. MA_20:=MA(CLOSE,20);//get the moving average of 20 cycle closing price. MA_30:=MA(CLOSE,30);//get the moving average of 30 cycle closing price. MA_5>MA_10 AND MA_10>MA_20 AND MA_20>MA_30; //determine wether the MA_5 is greater than MA_10, and MA_10 is greater than MA_20, and MA_20 is greater than MA_30. 

Previous high price and its locations

To obtain the location of the previous high price and its location, you can use FMZ Quant API directly. can be written:
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HHV_20:=HHV(HIGH,20); //get the highest price of 20 cycle(including current K line) HHVBARS_20:=HHVBARS(HIGH,20); //get the number of cycles from the highest price in 20 cycles to current K line HHV_60_40:REF(HHV_20,40); //get the highest price between 60 cycles and 40 cycles. 

Price gap jumping

The price gap is the case where the highest and lowest prices of the two K lines are not connected. It consists of two K lines, and the price gap is the reference price of the support and pressure points in the future price movement. When a price gap occurs, it can be assumed that an acceleration along the trend with original direction has begun. can be written:
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HHV_1:=REF(H,1); //get the pervious K line's highest price LLV_1:=REF(L,1); //get the pervious K line's lowest price HH:=L>HHV_1; //judging wether the current K line's lowest price is greater than pervious K line's highest price (jump up) LL:=H1.001; //adding additional condition, the bigger of the price gap, the stronger the signal (jump up) LLL:=H/REF(L.1)<0.999; //adding additional condition, the bigger of the price gap, the stronger the signal (jump down) JUMP_UP:HH AND HHH; //judging the overall condition, whether it is a jump up JUMP_DOWN:LL AND LLL; //judging the overall condition, whether it is a jump down 

Common technical indicators

Moving average

https://preview.redd.it/np9qgn3ywxs41.png?width=811&format=png&auto=webp&s=39a401b5c9498a13d953678c0c452b3b8f6cbe2c
From a statistical point of view, the moving average is the arithmetic average of the daily price, which is a trending price trajectory. The moving average system is a common technical tool used by most analysts. From a technical point of view, it is a factor that affects the psychological price of technical analysts. The decision-making factor of thinking trading is a good reference tool for technical analysts. The FMZ Quant tool supports many different types of moving averages, as shown below:
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MA_DEMO:MA(CLOSE,5); // get the moving average of 5 cycle MA_DEMO:EMA(CLOSE,15); // get the smooth moving average of 15 cycle MA_DEMO:EMA2(CLOSE,10);// get the linear weighted moving average of 10 cycle MA_DEMO:EMAWH(CLOSE,50); // get the exponentially weighted moving average of 50 cycle MA_DEMO:DMA(CLOSE,100); // get the dynamic moving average of 100 cycle MA_DEMO:SMA(CLOSE,10,3); // get the fixed weight of 3 moving average of closing price in 10 cycle MA_DEMO:ADMA(CLOSE,9,2,30); // get the fast-line 2 and slow-line 30 Kaufman moving average of closing price in 9 cycle. 

Bollinger Bands


https://preview.redd.it/mm0lkv00xxs41.png?width=1543&format=png&auto=webp&s=a87bdb4feecf97cbeef423b935860bfea85ffe6d
Bollinger bands is also based on the statistical principle. The middle rail is calculated according to the N-day moving average, and the upper and lower rails are calculated according to the standard deviation. When the BOLL channel starts changing from wide to narrow, which means the price will gradually returns to the mean. When the BOLL channel is changing from narrow to wide, it means that the market will start to change. If the price is up cross the upper rail, it means that the buying power is enhanced. If the price down cross the lower rail, it indicates that the selling power is enhanced.
Among all the technical indicators, Bollinger Bands calculation method is one of the most complicated, which introduces the concept of standard deviation in statistics, involving the middle trajectory ( MB ), the upper trajectory ( UP ) and the lower trajectory ( DN ). luckily, you don't have to know the calculation details, you can use it directly on FMZ Quant platform as follows:
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MID:MA(CLOSE,100); //calculating moving average of 100 cycle, call it Bollinger Bands middle trajectory TMP2:=STD(CLOSE,100); //calculating standard deviation of closing price of 100 cycle. TOP:MID+2*TMP2; //calculating middle trajectory plus 2 times of standard deviation, call it upper trajectory BOTTOM:MID-2*TMP2; //calculating middle trajectory plus 2 times of standard deviation, call it lower trajectory 

MACD Indicator


https://preview.redd.it/9p3k7y42xxs41.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1b8078325fc142c1563a1cf1cc0f222a13e0bde
The MACD indicator is a double smoothing operation using fast (short-term) and slow (long-term) moving averages and their aggregation and separation. The MACD developed according to the principle of moving averages removes the defect that the moving average frequently emits false signals, and also retains the effect of the other good aspect. Therefore, the MACD indicator has the trend and stability of the moving average. It was used to study the timing of buying and selling stocks and predicts stock price change. You can use it as follows:

DIFF:EMA(CLOSE,10)-EMA(CLOSE,50); //First calculating the difference between short-term moving average and long-term moving average. DEA:EMA(DIFF,10); //Then calculating average of the difference. 
The above is the commonly used strategy module in the development of quantitative trading strategies. In addition, there are far more than that. Through the above module examples, you can also implement several trading modules that you use most frequently in subjective trading. The methods are the same. Next, we began to write a viable intraday trading strategy.

Strategy Writing

In the Forex spot market, there is a wellknown strategy called HANS123. Its logic are basically judging wether the price breaks through the highest or lowest price of the number of K lines after the market opening

Strategy logic

  • Ready to enter the market after 30 minutes of opening;
  • Upper rail = 30 minutes high after opening ;
  • Lower rail = 30 minutes low after opening ;
  • When the price breaks above the upper limit, buy and open the position;
  • When the price falls below the lower rail, the seller opens the position.
  • Intraday trading strategy, closing before closing;

Strategy code

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// Data Calculation Q:=BARSLAST(DATA<>REF(DATA,1))+1; //Calculating the number of period from the first K line of the current trading day to current k line, and assign the results to N HH:=VALUEWHEN(TIME=0930,HHV(H,Q)); //when time is 9:30, get the highest price of N cycles, and assign the results to HH LL:=VALUEWHEN(TIME=0930,LLV(L,Q)); //When time is 9:30, get the lowest price of N cycles, and assign the results to LL //Placing Orders TIME>0930 AND TIME<1445 AND C>HH,BK; //If the time is greater than 9:30 and lesser than 14:45, and the closing price is greater than HH, opening long position. TIME>0930 AND TIME<1445 AND C=1445,CLOSEOUT; //If the time is greater or equal to 14:45, close all position. //Filtering the signals AUTOFILTER; //opening the filtering the signals mechanism 

To sum up

Above we have learned the concept of the strategy module. Through several commonly used strategy module cases, we had a general idea of the FMZ Quant programming tools, it can be said that learning to write strategy modules and improve programming logic thinking is a key step in advanced quantitative trading. Finally, we used the FMZ Quant tool to implement the trading strategy according a classical Forex trading strategy.

Next section notice

Maybe there are still some confusion for some people, mainly because of the coding part. Don't worry, we have already thought of that for you. On the FMZ Quant platform, there is another even easier programming tool for beginners. It is the visual programming, let's learn it soon!
submitted by FmzQuant to CryptoCurrencyTrading [link] [comments]

GOLD: pills against uncertainty

GOLD: pills against uncertainty

Reversed world

“Hey, gold, what are you doing over there at $1470? You are supposed to aim at $1900 – we are in a crisis here!” – that’s your righteous question to the precious metal. Although it did show an elevated trajectory for a while until recently, none of that seems “worthy” of the severity of the moment.
Gold, monthly chart
Especially, if you zoom in and see the most recent move of the shining metal. By falling to the support of $1450, it completely erased all the coronavirus-related gains and got back to where it was at the end of the year 2019.
Then, the US and China seized tariff fire and eventually announced that they were finally closing the theater of trade war and were on the way to sign the trade agreement. That was promising peace and prosperity to the nations, and the year was ending well, full of moderately optimistic expectations for 2020. Not for gold though. “Well”, - gold thought – “there is no place for me in such a confident and economically expanding riskless world”. Eventually, its price gave room to the calmness of the market and continued its usual trajectory of mildly gaining value.
Gold, daily chart
The interesting thing is that when the virus came – that is marked by the red vertical line – gold did not change its trajectory. If you remove the last move it did - that brick-like drop from $1700 to $1450 – and ignore that the virus is now reigning the globe, you would have little ground to suspect that something unusual is happening in the world. At least, from gold’s point of view: according to the chart, it didn’t seem to worry about states bent into recession and tens of thousands sick or dead. Not more than before that, at least. The curve of the price performance did not change before and after the outbreak – the straight green line confirms that. Visually, until the second half of February, when China was in flames of the coronavirus, gold felt exactly like it did in December when the US and China were cheerful of each other’s commitments to the trade deal.
And there is another interesting thing – the very last episode of gold price performance. The said drop. It is absolutely extraordinary because it is – in theory – supposed to be reversed. A millennia-long-living asset bringing joy to the eye of its owner, gold normally gets multiplied attention from investors seeking to secure and guard their funds when troubles kick in. Now, it is all the contrary: it plunges like a fraudulent security of a third-grade bank.
What’s happening?

Red pill

First, a very superficial but a very fair conclusion is: gold is not a “yes-sir” safe-haven commodity and does not react to the world of events as such. Nor does it react “on time”. Therefore, second, it is not as predictable as, say, oil prices are in their response to the KSA-Russia oil price stalemate.
Does it mean that gold should be disregarded as a refuge to the money of scared investors? No. But we have to delineate gold as a physical asset owned by individuals and organizations and guarded in, say, Fort Knox and gold traded in multiple market platforms as a virtual asset through, including, derivatives such as CFDs. It is exactly the latter that we have in Forex. And these, although they do have a correlation to the price of the physical gold nuggets traded across the world, are largely affected by speculations and price manipulations, whatever they may be.
That’s why you cannot rely on gold 100% as on a safe haven all the time in your trade. You have to weigh it against other assets, measure its reaction to the events and elaborate your judgment about it. The general guidelines are there – gold rises in the times of crises – but that alone is not enough to make successful trades. You need tactical information on its movement and tactical levels to watch. And its recent drop from $1700 to $1450 is another justification for that. If you bought gold even at the lows of $1600 expecting it to reverse upward on the spooked market mood, you would lose your funds by the current moment.
So again, what’s happening?

Red pill #2

First, you have to factor-in market unpredictability into your general trading methodology. More precisely, you have to factor-in the fact the sometimes you will see prices move the way you cannot predict and do not understand. And that has nothing to do with available information: in hindsight, you can explain almost any phenomenon on the Forex market, regardless of your level of situational awareness. For example, how can we explain the recent performance of the gold price? Observers’ opinions vary from blunt references to omnipresent panic that nullifies the safe-haven immunity of gold to sophisticated schemes that advocate selling off this metal to suppress its automatically increasing equity share fueled by other assets’ reduction. While both may be relevant, for you that means one honest confession cited by Bloomberg after US Fed’s failure to make markets happy by the rate cut:
"The traditional rules are out of order and there is nothing which can be classified as a safe haven – not even gold".
Note: this “even” underlines that fundamentally, gold has an undisputed recognition as a reserve asset, but at the moment, it does not function as it normally would.

Blue pill

Steel started gaining value as it seems to be a “newly-founded” safe-haven asset as seen from the perspective of the Chinese market. But we are not suggesting you piling up steel rods in your backyard.
The suggestion is: be flexible. Treat gold as your usual currency pair. Don’t take it for granted that it is “supposed” to rise in bad times. It is not, as you have already learned. Not always, at least. And one apparently cannot really know when it follows the default rule, and when it doesn’t. But one can always apply the same rules of observation and market interpretation which are applied to the rest of the Forex market. Follow the trend, reinforce it with fundamentals. If these don’t work, go technical. Once you have indications for upward reversal – buy. Once you have a downward move anticipated – short. Currently, from a purely technical perspective, a short-term upward correction is likely to happen because there is no fundamental reason to press on for a non-stop plunge while the Awesome Oscillator and the hesitation at the current level of $1470 indicate an upward-sideways mood.

Blue pill #2

No pain no gain. But as Warren Buffet said, Mr. Market doesn’t force you to trade. If you feel like you are confident to do it, you are welcome – you have all the instruments, and FBS is all but available to help you. If not – come any other minute, hour or day – he will always be glad to serve you with opportunities to make profits.

P. S.

However, keep in mind that Mr. Market, although happy to serve you endless chances of benefit, doesn’t decide when the next coronavirus comes. Therefore, don’t lose your chance to use this once-in-a-decade strike of nature to your financial advantage.
submitted by FBS_Forex to u/FBS_Forex [link] [comments]

2020 Foresight: What to do to Protect and Profit in Bear Market.

Not many people like to talk about bear markets, especially not when the more emotive terms such as "Stock market crash" are used. It's often looked upon as fear mongering, and sensationalism. Preparation is practical, though.

This post is not intended to be fear mongering. In fact I want to discuss ways we can look at the market and plan for different scenarios that can mean we have no reason to be afraid.
Even if the S&P500 was to trade at 1,000 (big drop from current price (Today is the 31st August 2019, price is 2,946), we can plan and act in such ways this is a non harmful event for us. Particularly those who have net worth's to protect that has heavy stocks exposure.
This is not going to be one of these, "It's the top RIGHT NOW ... everyone panic!" sort of posts. Regardless of my views on this, I know this is a message that would not be well received. You do not know me, and too often people have cried wolf on this and been laughably incorrect. Instead what I will do is describe price moves in the indices that most people will have every reason to believe at this point can't happen.
Hopefully, they do not happen. I am not gleefully fangirling for a market crash. I just think there is prudence in preparation. These events will not happen in the hours after I post this, so I'd ask you kindly suspend prejudices. There is nothing to be gained by bickering over opinions of whether this will happen or not. I just want to give my perspective on how a person should protect themselves after it happens, if it does.
I'll cover some of the things I'd forecast will be points people will want to raise or questions likely to be asked. If you'd like to skip to the forecast and subsequent trade plan you can scroll down to the line break (unless you're going to make a common comment, then please read the following section first).

Why Do I think My Opinion Matters?

Many of you may be smarter than I in many ways, but few of you will have spent as much time assessing charting patterns as I have. Indeed, many people will scoff at the very idea of "lines on a chart" being worth anything. I'm not here to have this debate, I fully agree your view point is rational and logical. If I'd not spent years watching price charts every day, I'd think the same.
I focus mostly on Forex markets. I know these well. There are many ways currencies look like they may move that are ways they should not move unless there is big problems in stocks. These are nagging warnings. The attitude to risk in the Forex markets is negative, and stock markets show dangerous patterns. I watch these topping sorts of patterns every day. I see them in intra-day crashes, intra-week crashes and intra-month crashes.
Most major moves fit into these patterns, and when the same patterns are applied to previous stock markets in the months before they crashed, the way the patterns form and then complete (in a crash) is the same. From my perspective, these are just intra-decade crashes. There is little technical difference on the charts - although it's very different in the real world it affects.
This is why I am doing this in a "IF we see this ... then this is likely". I know at this point in the pattern, my methods predict something that will be highly unusual. If that thing happens, if we do not crash after that, we'd be breaking the trend of all market crashes in history (this is not likely, it does not seem the smart way to bet your net worth).

Technical Analysis is Tea Leaves!


You're welcome to your opinion on this, and I do understand your point of view. I will not post examples to try and prove my perspective on it, since it will always be called "curve-fitting". All I will say is nothing I have done in my years of trading has involved me persuading others what I do works. I do not sell training or anything of the like. I've spent many years using the things I've learned to bet my own money, and I've done well.
I will not debate on this subject, because it's always a deadlock. You can not convince me I've not seen what I've seen, and I can not show you what I've seen, and do not expect you to believe it without proof.

Stop Fear Mongering!


I really would like to re-iterate, I do not want you to be afraid. I am going to describe something that might happen that will be scary if it does happen. If it does not, there is no problem. I do not wish you to be fearful before, during or after.

This is like "Stop, Drop and Roll". None of us ever expect to be ablaze. If we are, this is good information. It will be better than running about waving arms and feeding the flames to engulf us. All I want to do here is to give you the "stop, drop and roll" of a market crash. To prevent you panicking and making bad decisions at bad areas. To allow you instead to go, "Fuck! Okay ... well that's not good. Now I have to ..." if scary things do happen.

No One Can Time the Market!

People have predicted and traded every stock market crash in history. The fact that many people try this and get it wrong does not take away from the fact people get this right, then place the right trades and make millions. Not many people make understanding the ways a market moves their life's work. If you do, you get a good feel for it's mood at any given time.

[Fundamental Analysis ] Says That Won't Happen!

I am not here to debate analysis viewpoints. Doing so has little use, it's better to forecast, assess and then take the best actions. I'll confess I am too ignorant on many of these topic to engage in debate. I wake up every day 5 days a week and decide where to bet my money. In doing this, I've found charts forecast and news reports. I can find no way of making money by being told what happened already, so I use the charts.
What I will say is for the warning move I will discuss to happen, something news related will have to change. Some catalyst event will have to happen. In 2008, it was Lehman. Make no mistake, the warnings were on the chart long before the bankruptcy was in the news.

Time in the Markets is Better than Timing the Markets


I am perfectly fine with this perspective, and not here to argue against it. If the market could drop 50% or more and you'd not be concerned because you think it will be back up in 10 years, this is none of my business.
I'm a day trader, so for me personally timing the markets is everything. Spending a lot of time in the market day trading often means you've made a mistake. I'm looking for ways to get foresight into what market moves may develop and understanding of what times and conditions I can enter into these moves to profit from the.
I want to stress I am not necessarily advocating the average person tries to time the markets. In the same way an electrician would not suggest you re-wire your own home. You also could not say to the electrician it's better to leave the lights off than risk getting a shock. Different preparations and skills sets give different possibilities. I spent a lot of years and lost money through a lot of them starting out learning how to do this.
The things I will explain here will not allow a person to consistently time the market. If I may be excused a cheesy pun, this "crash course" will be dealing with only single event, and one single set of scenarios. What I want to put forward for you in this is price moves to watch for and then (really quite specific) levels of price that are likely to offer us the best prices to protect long stock portfolios, or take speculative short trades. Very thin area of assessment.


Forecast and Plan.

What if the S&P500 Went to 2,200 ... Quickly?


It's the weekend, and the last day of August in 2019. The S&P500 has closed 2922 after rallying through the week after some sharp drops from all time highs. We may see record highs again if this keeps up ... but what if next week it opens and starts to fall? Or maybe rallies higher but can not make a new high and starts to fall.
What if it falls faster than it did in the last drop, and what if this time it does not stop? What if it gets to the lows of 2790, and goes from there quickly to 2700. These big levels act as resistance and the market can not trade higher than them. Instead it hits them, reverses and goes down more.

I think people would be nervous, but there'd be still the feeling of this being a normal, albeit tough, corrective move. There's weekly lows of 2,333. Above here the market is still technically up-trending. What if we got there, and the market went through it like it was nothing? What if the coming weeks or months we seen candles bigger than any we've seen recently? What if we were hearing news reports of record falls, rather than record highs?
What if over the development of only weeks and some horrific trading days we went from today's 2922 to break under the 2015 lows of 1,886?
I think people would be afraid!
Nothing I am saying is for the purposes of fear mongering, but I think this is possible. I'd like to say I think it's "highly unlikely", but I am thinking a lot about how to structure real bets on it and I like my odds. If this happens, it's likely the market will go lower still. What you do during the following weeks and months may have a huge affect on your financial health by the start of 2021.

How Does This Scenario Look on a S&P500 Chart?





That looks like it's not going to happen, right? I think that this looks like it's not going to happen. We learn through our life experience, and my life experience has taught me when I ignore what I think about things like this and build well structured trade plans that would assume it will happen, money comes. For me, this makes sense to bet on at the moment, as unlikely as it looks. That's getting a bit into "Calling the high", though. \Which this is not about.
Edit: Hmm, it sounds like it's not going to happen. I can not post pictures here apparently.

This is about what do you do if this happens? What if there is a day when they say on the news that the market just made it's lowest point in the last five years ... and economists and experts say it can go down more!

1 - Filter and assess your sources.
Before you act or even think about the information these sources have (pertaining to what trades to make or expect), check what they were saying now. If they're not saying this could happen - don't worry too much about what they say happens next. They have as much chance of being wrong.

2 - Do not panic.
This is a time to remain calm. Bad things have happened, and there will have been multiple days the market has dropped precipitously. Different economic factors explaining these moves may be threatening to get worse and the market may take more dangerous swings spiking under recent lows. This is the point at which most people will panic and make bad choices with their portfolio.

3 - Buy Around 1,800
This obviously sounds like something anyone would do right now, with price at 2,922; but with the conditions that'd have to be occurring for this of move to happen will make this highly counter intuitive at the time.

4 - Understand Something Changed, New Highs are Not Coming
From peak pessimism around 1,800 I expect the market to start to rally. Rallying strong. Making markets great again.
At this point, you should understand something has changed. The market is not meant to trade at that level in an up-trend. Frequently when these levels 'break', there is a strong counter move that is fierce. It's also brief. We can buy here and offset some of the losses in the mini bounce (but be very cautious).
2,129 area is where the danger of a bear move comes back in. It might rally a bit above here into 2,333.

This is where the second mistake many people will make will be. Not buying the lows, but then starting to buy into this rally thinking it's going to new highs.

Very Important: If price makes moves consistent with what I've described 2,220 - 2,300 are hedge areas.
If you take appropriate actions in these areas you can protect yourself from the chance of excessive loss if the market is to crash in 2020. You can also do this without taking on much risk. Granted if you hedge long portfolios there is some risk of losing a little, but your area of risk on these hedges is less than the area of risk on a long portfolio after this has happened.
When this has happened, historically it's always led to a crash in the coming months/year. We'll have done something the markets do not usually do. Big corrections may look similar, but when you deal with this all the time, you come to know there are specifics that should be noted. If the levels I've mentioned for a buy fill, the market is crashing. It's no longer a question of if.

5 - Hold Hedges Until 1,100

If we crash, the low will probably be only a bit below this level. Anything more than this in a fall would be truly horrific (I know many people think this is horrific, but from a technical point of view this is really to be expected, and not unusual. It only happens after long periods of time, so it's unexpected and uncommon. It not unusual in trend formation).
I am not a financial adviser, and can not tell you any trades you should be making to hedge portfolios or to take speculative positions. I've given these levels on the S&P500, and there are many things correlated to this you could use to protect portfolios. If this happens, I will be very much 'In the trenches'. I'll be trading in various markets every day and sharing some of my insights and trade plans, but I can't tell you specifically what to do.

I am only sharing this with you to let you know there are strategies people have used in the past to predict crashes, and I've used these strategies a lot and become good with them. They now predict a market crash starting in 2019, developing through 2020, and the things I've explained in this post would be the next steps if the prediction is accurate.
If the next steps happen, the strategy would then forecast the S&P500 to go from 2,200 - 2,400 sort of range to 1,000.
I am asking no one to take this seriously at the moment, but I would suggest if the market makes moves similar to what I've described - you then consider there may be a lot of merit to what it further forecasts.
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印网友评论:印度归国学子:印度可以从中国学到的经验 ZT by 学姐的头 on 2014-04-08

-------------译者:观棋柯烂-审核者:chen_lt------------
kshay Kumar, 25, knew his journey would be tough. But he thought he was prepared.
Kshay Kumar, 25岁,他知道自己的旅途会很艰难,但他认为他已经做好了准备。
In 2012, after an engineering degree and a oneyear stint with a multinational, Kumar felt he needed a makeover. "I didn't want to be stuck with civil engineering all my life. I also wanted to see the world and explore new options," he recalls. Doing an MBA from a premier institute was on his mind.
2012年,在取得工程学位并为跨国公司服务了一年后,Kumar觉得他需要一个转变。“我不想被土木工程套牢一生。我也想看看这个世界,探索一下新的机会,”他回忆道。在一个高等学院读MBA的想法浮现在他的脑海里。
He did think of the Indian Institutes of Management (IIMs) and the Xavier School of Management, but the desire for global exposure pushed him to explore options overseas. Kumar settled for a oneyear post-graduate course at the Imperial University in the UK, which he financed via an education loan. "Visa rules and the bleak job market there did weigh on my mind. But I had a feeling I could manage it," he says. He had confidence in Imperial's good global ranking, its alumni network and his own hard work.
他也考虑过印度管理学院(IIM)和泽维尔管理学院,但是对于全球视野的渴望促使他探索海外的机会。Kumar接受了位于英国的帝国大学的一年期研究生课程,其资金来源为助学贷款。“英国的签证规则和惨淡的就业市场确实在我脑海中权衡过,但我有一种感觉,我一定能够应付得过来,”他说。因为帝国大学在全球的优秀排名、其校友关系网以及他自己的努力,他充满信心。
Kumar began his hunt for a job virtually from the day he landed in the UK. He studied hard to get good grades but worked even harder to find a good job. By tapping into networks of his alumni, friends and family, Kumar reckons he would have reached out to over 200 firms during that year. "It didn't work. My good grades made me eligible for plenty of jobs, but my non-European Indian passport was the problem," he shrugs.
Kumar一来英国就开始寻找工作。他努力学习以取得好成绩,但更努力去寻找一份好工作。通过发掘他的校友、朋友和家庭的关系,Kumar估计在那年他接触了超过200家企业。“这没有用。我的好成绩让我满足了许多岗位的条件,但我非欧洲的印度护照是个问题,”他耸了耸肩。
Kumar moved back to India late last year and has just landed a job with a private equity firm. "All my plans have been delayed by five years," he says. Close to half his salary today goes in paying monthly instalments on his education loan.
Kumar去年底回到了印度,在一家私人股权公司工作。“我的所有计划都被推迟了五年,”他说。他每月要用现在将近一半的薪水来偿还助学贷款。
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The World isn't Flat
世界不是平的
The West has a problem. Its economy is in a funk, not enough jobs are being created, cautious companies aren't hiring too many, and worried governments — from the US to the UK — are raising visa barriers for foreigners to work in their countries.
西方已经出现问题。它的经济陷入一片混乱,不能创造足够多的职位,谨慎的公司不会聘用过多的职员,焦虑不安的各国政府——从美国到英国——正在增加签证壁垒以阻止外国人在他们的国家工作。
Young Indians, who went overseas for education, are facing a tough time finding a job. Many like Kumar have returned home. And some are now casting the net wider — looking for jobs from the US to Hong Kong and Singapore — or settling for sub-optimal options. Rupa Chanda, professor, IIM-Bangalore, who has worked on reports on international student mobility, says visa and immigration is the biggest factor affecting Indian students' decisions.
海外求学的年轻印度人正在面临找工作的艰难时期。像Kumar一样,许多人已经回家。他们中一些人正在通过更大范围的求职网——从英国到香港、新加坡来寻找工作;或者妥协于较次的选择。印度管理学院(IIM)班加罗尔分校的Rupa Chanda教授曾在研究国际学生流动性的报告中指出,签证和移民政策是影响印度学生做出决定的最大因素。
The US, the UK and Australia — the three most popular destinations for Indians seeking global education — have seen the number of Indian students come down over the past few years (see Out of Favour?). Remember, many Indian students take hefty education loans to finance their studies abroad. While many would find decent jobs back in India that would not help much as these students need dollar salaries to comfortably service their loan. This is taking its toll. "Overseas education is costly. Many Indian students are doing a cost-benefit analysis to figure how to recoup their investments overseas and putting off their plans ," explains New York-based Rahul Choudaha, chief knowledge officer, World Education Services (WES), a non-profit organization that provides credential evaluations for international students planning to study or work in the US and Canada.
美国、英国、澳大利亚,印度人寻求全球教育的最火的三大目的地,已经发现印度学生数量在过去几年持续下降(或者三大目的地已经不受青睐?)。记住,许多印度学生都背负着高额的教育贷款来资助他们的海外求学。虽然回到印度他们都能找到体面的工作,但是这些都没有太大的帮助,因为学生们需要一份用美元支付的薪水来帮助他们更轻松的偿还贷款。这就是造成的影响。“海外教育非常昂贵,许多印度学生都正在进行成本效益分析,以找出如何收回其海外投资,推迟他们(去海外就读)的计划,” 坐落于纽约的世界教育服务中心的知识总监Rahul Choudaha解释道。 这一非营利性组织为准备在美国和加拿大学习或工作的国际学生提供认证评估。
But to be fully able to understand how this trend will play out, one must understand the backdrop. A big generational shift is taking place among the students looking for overseas education. Many of them now are India's liberalization children, who have grown up post-1991 and lived in an increasingly global world with fewer barriers.
但是要完全理解这种趋势是如何产生的,就必须要了解其背景。一个大的世代转变正发生在寻求海外教育的学生中间。如今的他们许多都是印度自由的一代,成长在1991年后,生活在障碍更少的全球化的今天。
So in many ways this is their first brush with a world with barriers. Many are also children of globetrotting well-paid senior corporate executives who think differently about education, exposure and investing in a world-class education. "These parents understand the long-term rewards of a world-class education. I see many of my friends taking their children to these top campuses after they pass out from school to give them a first-hand feel," says Hema Ravichandar, strategic HR expert and a former HR head of Infosys.
所以从许多方面来说,这是他们第一次面对来自世界的阻碍。他们中也有许多是环游世界的、对教育、经历以及投资世界级教育有着不同看法的高薪企业的高管们的小孩。 “这些父母明白世界一流教育的长期回报。我看到我的许多朋友带着他们的小孩去顶尖的校园,让小孩们领略这些高等学府给他们的切身感受,”战略人力资源管理专家、Infosys 公司前人力资源主管 Hema Ravichandar说道。
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Woes on Foreign Shores
身处海外的痛苦
Both of Ravichandar's children have studied overseas. Her daughter, Aditi, is doing her MBA from Wharton in the US and her son Nikhil, 22, completed his Bachelor's in economics from Warwick in the UK. Nikhil chose the UK over India because of the flexibility available in picking courses — he wanted to do economics with law which was impossible in India with its rigid course structures. "Education in India is not very research-driven and multicultural," he adds.
Ravichandar'的两个孩子都已经在国外留学。她的女儿,Aditi正在美国的沃顿商学院读MBA而她22岁的儿子Nikhil已经在英国的华威大学完成了经济本科学习。Nikhil之所以选择英国而非印度是因为英国大学在课程选择上有更大的灵活性——他既想要修经济学又想要修法律,而这在具有严格课程结构的印度大学是不可能的。他还说,“在印度的教育并不是由研究来驱使的,也不够文化多元性”。
But during his stay there, the UK revoked the two-year work permit for foreign graduates. Thus he needed a firm job offer to stay on after graduation. This was difficult since he was particular about the kind of work. "I wanted a job in economic consulting," he says. Unable to get that he preferred to do a postgraduate programme instead. While he did not take any loan, for many of his classmates, who had taken a hefty education loan, things were difficult.
但是就当他在英国学习时,英国取消了留学生毕业后的两年工作签证,因此Nikhil需要一份工作从而能够在毕业后留在英国。由于他对工作的特殊要求这显得有些困难“我想要一份有关经济咨询的工作”Nikhil说。若不能获得这样的工作,Nikhil宁愿继续读研究生。由于Nikhil没有像他的同学那样申请沉重的助学贷款,事情开始变得困难了。
Now, Nikhil is back in India getting some interesting exposure at a few start-ups in Bangalore, India's Silicon Valley. He is contemplating a startup of his own. "This is the best time to take the risk and explore it," he says.
现在 Nikhil 已经回到了印度并且在印度的硅谷,班加罗尔与一些新兴企业进行了接触。他正在考虑自己创办一个公司。“这是最好的冒险和探索的时候”他说。
Across the Atlantic, Sujoyini Mandal, in her 20s, offers another peek into the odds that Indian students face overseas. After her graduation from Jadavpur University, Mandal went to Singapore for her postgrad and worked with a think-tank there. Life was good but since she had always yearned for a degree from a world-class university, she applied for a Master's at Harvard's Kennedy School.
穿越过大西洋,20岁的Sujoyini Mandal展现了印度学生在海外遭遇的另一面。在她从贾达普大学毕业之后,Mandal去新加坡念了研究生并且在一个智囊团工作。生活过得很惬意,但是由于她希望获得世界一流大学的学位,她申请了哈佛肯尼迪政治学院。
For two years, she deferred her admission as she did not get any financial aid. She saved some money and, with a bit of aid, finally took the plunge in 2011. Foreign students in her college face an education loan cap of $30,000 ($15,000 a year), she says, making things even more difficult Mandal started looking for a job when she graduated in May 2013. But mandates that fitted her needs and aspirations were not easy to come by. She did land a contract with the World Bank but that was short term, uncertain and had no medical cover. Last month Mandal finally landed a job with an investment bank.
两年来,由于Mandal没有获得任何经济援助,她一直在延迟入学时间。在存了一些钱并且一些援助之后她最终在2011年入学了。Mandal说,她所在学院的留学生面临30000美元(15000美元每年)的贷款限额,这使得情况变得更加困难。Mandal在2013年5月毕业后开始寻找工作。但是适合她的需求和期望的职位并不那么容易获得。她确实已经和世界银行签订了合约,但是那是短期的,有不确定性,也没有医疗保险。最终在上个月Mandal在一家投资银行找到了一份工作。
Despite such struggles, there are many reasons why the pursuit of overseas education among young Indians is unlikely to die down any time soon.
尽管面临这么多挣扎,但仍然有很多其他原因让印度学生想去海外留学,短期内这种趋势是不会消失的。
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The Demographic Bulge
人口膨胀
Every year, around 800,000 Indian students reportedly go overseas for their education. This costs the country close to $15 billion of forex annually, estimates industry lobby Assocham. If students are going overseas for education, it's because India has a problem of both capacity and quality. The country has one of the world's largest education infrastructures: 600 universities and 34,000 colleges with 17 million students enrolled and 5 million students graduating every year. But India is also witnessing a demographic bulge — it has perhaps the world's largest young population. Experts estimate that some 100-million-odd students will seek higher education over the next decade.
据报道,每年大约有800000名印度学生出国留学,,据印度工商业联合会估计这将耗费每年近150亿美元的外汇。学生们出国留学是因为印度不管是在教育容量还是教育质量上都有问题。印度的教育基础设施是世界上最大的教育设施之一,600所大学和34,000学院每年接受1700多万新生并输出500多万毕业生,但是我们也正见证着印度人口的爆炸性增长,印度或许有着世界上最庞大的年轻人群,专家估计在未来十年里,将有一亿多的学生寻求更高的教育。The capacity problem is compounded by the quality issue. About 70% of the capacity in India is of poor standards. At the other end of the spectrum, competitive intensity at the premier colleges is so stiff that it is often easier for bright students to get admission in Ivy League colleges in the US and the UK than in the IITs, IIMs and even top colleges in Delhi University.
教育能力和教育质量上的问题是相互关联的。大约70%的印度教育处较低的水准,而另一方面,印度一流学院的竞争激烈且死板,以至于对聪明的学生来说,进入美国或英国的常春藤大学要比进入印度理工学院、印度管理学院、甚至德里大学里好的学院都容易得多。
All this coincides with the rise of India's aspirational upper middle class. Over the past two decades, many first-generation Indians have risen up the corporate hierarchy and are financially well-off. These welltravelled, financially stable corporate executives desire the best for their children. "They are looking for the best educational experience. They know it is a life-long asset. Indian premier colleges do not have the capacity and are very rigid," says TV Mohandas Pai, chairman, Manipal Global Education. Pai's son studied at Stanford University in the US and now works for a start-up in Silicon Valley.
这些现象与印度上层中产阶级不断上涨的雄心壮志密切相关。在过去的二十几年里,许多第一代移民创立了自己的事业,相当富裕。这些经济稳定,见多识广的公司高管希望把最好的东西给予他们的子女。Manipal全球教育主席 Mohandas Pai说他们在为孩子寻找一流的教育,这是孩子一生的财富,印度的一流大学不能给予这些而且这些大学要求过于死板。他的孩子曾在美国斯坦福大学学习,现在在硅谷工作。
This aligns well with the global trend of rising international mobility of students. According to Institute of International Education (IIE), since 2000, the number of students leaving home in pursuit of higher education has increased by 65%, totalling about 4.3 million students globally. What is more interesting is that the share of students from the developing countries in this pie is rising — it moved up from 54.8% to 69% between 1999 and 2009.
这个现象与世界范围内学生国际间流动增强的趋势是一致的。IIE的研究表明,自2000年以来,学生为了获得更高的教育出国的数量增加了65%。全球总计约430万。更有趣的现象是发展中国家的学生所占的份额正在增加---1999年到2009年间从54.8%增加到69%.
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India vs China
印度对比中国
Not surprisingly, the world's two most populous and powerful emerging countries — China and India — send the largest number of students overseas. But China has rapidly shifted gears to overtake India.
让人毫不惊讶的是,作为世界上人口最多、经济发展最快速的这两个国家向海外派遣了最多数量的留学生。但这方面中国很快就超越了印度。
Consider what's taking place in the US. In 2000-01, India topped the list of international students by country, with 66,836 against China's 63,211. But by 2009-10 China had overtaken India. In 2012-13, China sent 236,000 students; India was nudging the 97,000 mark. While the number of Chinese students has been growing in double digits of late, that of Indian students has been sliding. To understand why that is happening, it is important to analyze the profile of students going overseas from both the countries. 2000-2001年,美国的外国留学生中印度学生是最多的,66836人,而中国学生为63211人。但是在2009-2010年时,中国超越了印度。2012-2013年,中国向美国派遣的留学生
已经达到236000人;而印度才逼近97000人。近来,中国留学生人数呈两位数增长,而印度方面则一直在下降。要想了解这其中的缘由,就有必要分析一下两个国家的留学生的一些基本情况。
Chinese students going to the US are evenly split between undergraduate (40%) and postgraduate programmes (44%). But Indian students are heavily skewed towards postgraduate programmes (55%) with just 13% at the undergraduate level. Indian students are also unique as over 60% are in the STEM (science, technology, engineering, maths) category. Bear in mind that historically, postgraduate and STEM programmes offer more financial support than undergraduate and non-STEM programmes.
中国留学生去主要去美国接受本科教育项目(40%)和研究生教育项目(44%),比较均衡。而印度学生去美国主要接受研究生教育(55%),本科教育只占13%。60%的印度留学生学的是理工科。从历史上来说,研究生以及理工科教育项目比起本科教育项目和非理工科教育项目在资金上会给留学生提供更多的帮助。
"The decline in Indian students is directly related to the 'Strivers' , who have been putting their plans on hold due to increasing cost of studying abroad which in turn was triggered by economic uncertainty and currency devaluation," says Choudaha.
“印度留学生的下降与”奋勉族“群体相关(根据全球教育服务处的研究,指的是资源少的发奋者),这个群体由于海外留学费用的增加导致他们搁置了自己的留学计划,而经济不稳定以及货币贬值引发了海外留学成本的提高,”Choudaha说。
A majority of Indian students arrives at the Master's level and funds education by taking loans as financial aid from colleges has dried up. So, while the majority of Indian students go for education loans, Chinese students are supported by their families. According to a research by WES, 47% of Indian respondents report loans as one of the primary sources of funding as compared with only 3% of Chinese.
大部分的印度海外留学生取得了硕士文凭,但由于学校助学金的萎缩,他们不得不通过贷款来完成学业。所以大部分印度学生是通过贷款来完成学业的,而中国留学生则靠父母支持。根据全球教育服务处的一项研究,47%的印度回馈者说贷款是他们完成学业的主要手段之一,而这么说的中国学生只占3%。
Chinese students, in contrast, are "explorers" (experience seekers), says Choudaha. Often the only-child of financially well-off parents, they have the financial wherewithal to study abroad and are under less pressure to find a job there. But change may be afoot. Some Indian students could make the transition from 'strivers' to 'explorers' and Choudaha expects more and more Indian students — most of them children of well-off senior executives — to go overseas at the undergraduate level. Not so dependent on financial aid, he also sees many more Indians exploring new interdisciplinary fields, beyond STEM. Even in the STEM category, experts feel that Indian students will be the biggest beneficiary as the Obama government eases rules for this critical segment in future.
对比来说,中国学生是“探险族”(追求体验一族),Choudaha如是说。通常是富裕家庭的独生子女,所以留学的钱不用愁,也没有太大的压力去找工作。但情况可能会有所改变,一些印度学生有可能从“奋勉族”向“探险族”转变,Choudaha预测说将有越来越多大多来自印度富裕家庭的学生到海外接受本科教育。他们不会太依靠助学金。他还说越来越多印度学生除了理工科外还涉及了新的跨学科教育领域。即使是在理工科类别中,专家们认为随着奥巴马在未来放宽这个类别的规定,印度学生将成为最大的受益者。
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Lessons from China
中国榜样
Two decades back, China faced problems similar to those India faces today — its higher education had both capacity and quality issues. Since then China has worked hard to upgrade its educational institutions. It has two programmes — Project 211 and Project 985. The former aims to make 100 Chinese universities world class in the 21st century; this will help China churn out world-class trained professionals to push economic growth. These universities are expected to set national standards for education quality that can be replicated by others.
二十年前,中国面对的问题如同今日印度面对的问题——高等教育在质和量上的不足。从那时起中国努力升级发展他们的教育机构,其中包涵了211工程和985工程。前者旨在创造21世纪的世界级名牌大学,这会快速培养出大批的专业人才,有效推动其经济发展。这些大学被期望于发展可供借鉴的全国性教育质量标准。
Project 985 started more than a decade back and is an attempt to build China's own Ivy League colleges in the 21st century. In the first phase the project included nine universities. The second phase, launched in 2004, includes 40-odd universities. The projects have been backed by significant investments. According to a New York Times report, China is investing $250 billion a year in human capital.
985工程开始于十多年前,意在创造21世纪中国自己的常春藤校盟。工程第一阶段包括了九所大学。第二阶段在2004年启动,新增四十所大学。这项工程受到了大量投资支持。据纽约时报报道,中国为人力资源发展一年就投资了2500亿美元。
The dragon country's efforts are now bearing fruit. Many Chinese universities are climbing up the global ranks. Two Chinese universities have made it to the top global 50 in the Times Higher Education report. India has none. In the top 500, 16 Chinese universities make the cut against seven from India. Mobile international students are taking note. A decade back, China was hardly on anybody's radar.
龙之国度的努力现在已经开花结果,很多中国大学都跻身入全球排行榜。泰晤士报高等教育刊报说两所中国大学成功挤入全球最佳大学前五十名。印度一个名额都没。在全球前五百名大学中中国有16所,完胜印度的七所。国际学生们都注意到了中国的巨大变化,而十年前,中国大学几乎不被关注。
Today, it is the third largest education hub in the world after the US and the UK with 3.28 lakh international students, according to IIE. By 2020, it hopes to host 500,000 international students. Even Singapore is targeting 1.5 lakh foreign students by 2015. In contrast, India was home to just 27,000 international students in 2012. China is aware that to push innovation and realize its economic ambitions, it must be able to attract top talent — in its colleges and workforce.
据国际教育学会数据,现在中国拥有32万八千的外国学生,是仅次于美国和英国的世界第三大教育中心。到2020年,这一数字可能变为50万。即使小国新加坡也有在2015年达到15万外国留学生的目标,而印度在2012年却只有2万七千外国留学生。中国已经意识到,若要推动创新和实现他的经济腾飞,就必须吸引来高端人才——在大学和职场上。
Also, in virtually every key statistic, the world today is seeing a shift from the West to the East. From economic GDP to consumption power, MNCs across the board are looking at Asia and the world's two most populous nations. This shift is happening demographically too. But in the education space, the West still dominates.
从每一个关键数据都能看出,实际上世界中心正从西方转移到东方。亚洲国家,特别是世界两大人口大国国民生产总值和消费能力的提升吸引了所有跨国公司的目光。这种转变和人口有关,但是在教育方面依然是西方占主导地位。
Of the world's top 100 universities, 46 are in the US. Seven of top 10 universities are in the US. Asia has just 11 in the top 100. "It is difficult to replicate what US has done with its universities to 2emerge as an innovation hub," says Pai. So, ambitious and aspirational Indians will continue to look overseas for education. But if India has to realize its potential, it must invest heavily in building world-class institutions in the country — the China way.
世界前100名大学有46所位于美国,前十名有七所是美国的。亚洲在全球大学前一百名中只有11所。“美国通过大学而转变为创新中心的成功是很难被复制的,”派说。因此,有理想有抱负的印度人会继续寻求海外教育机会。如果印度想发掘自身潜力,他必须学中国那样,大力投资于建设世界一流的国内大学。


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Skhey Mobile (Gurgaon) 22 Hours ago Foreign degree is no more a guarantee card for success.
外国文凭已经不再是成功的保证了
Neil M (pune-mumbai) 22 Hours ago Finding a good university and a good course is important. I know many guys select short courses which are not recognized world wide and specially in India find it difficult to get a job. Also, dream america is not true for everyone. All the best to seekers.
找一个好的大学和好的专业是十分重要的,据我了解一些人选择了一些短期的课程,这些课程并不在世界范围内被承认尤其在印度会发现很难找到一份工作。并不是每个人的美国梦都能实现。祝追梦者好运
Rajesh Thambala (Hyderabad, India) 23 Hours ago Very informative article.
十分有意义的文章
Partha (Bangalore) 1 Day ago Nice Article. Much Appreciated
很好的文章,表示赞赏
SAMAD (India) 1 Day ago right choice....
正确的选择
Tempcool Mukhopadhyay (India) 1 Day ago An excellent article. Appropriate and very well timed. Issue lies with inadequate job creation in India compared to passing out rate and all sorts of reservation quota for the "privileged" groups. Also unscrupulous marketing by planting misleading information by the education institutes of developed countries and their Indian agents.
一篇很棒的文章。写的正是时候。问题在于在印度创造的就业不足,而毕业生却不断增加,而且“特权”团体得到各种各样的预订配额。另一方面,发达国家的教育机构和其印度代理通过误导性的信息来是肆无忌惮的推销自己的教育产品。
Guramandeep Singh (Mexico) 1 Day ago 67 years after Independence, we are still stuck to providing reservation quotas in institutes of higher education. The recent Supreme Court order puts 27% reservation for OBCs which along with that of SCs and STs brings the total reservation to 49.5%. Here is the breakup of IIM-A seats: General 182 Non creamy OBC 104 ---- Schedule caste 58 ---- Schedule tribe 29 ---- Differently-abled 12 ---- Total 385 --- I have read various comments touching upon patriotism towards India to youngsters being crazy and the need to enlighten them. Reservation for a certain group is discrimination against the other groups. So ask yourself, is our system really fair? Should we not be looking at this objectively and trying to solve the root cause of the problem instead of commenting upon the phenomenon which is a result of a messed up education system at the behest of corrupt politicians?
已经独立67年了,我们的高等教育学院仍在坚持预定配额制度。最近,最高法院颁发命令27%的份额给“其他落后阶级”(OBC),同时给予“设籍种姓”(SC)和“设籍部落”(ST)一定的配额,所以总共就达到了49.5%的配额。对某一群体的配额预留其实是对其他群体的歧视。因此,扪心自问,我们的教育系统真的公平吗?相比于仅仅讨论因为腐败政客的命令导致的混乱教育系统的各种表象,难道我们不应该客观的看待并从根本上解决这些问题吗? (译著:印度的预留机制指的是将政府机构中一定数量的空缺席位留给那些落后和代表人数不足的团体(主要通过种姓和部落来定义)的成员。相当于以配额为基础的平权运动。“其他落后阶级”、“设籍种姓”以及“设籍部落”是这项机制的主要受益者。
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ILA (Chennai) replies to Guramandeep Singh 1 Day ago Dear Learned Singh. This article has nothing to do with reservation. Reservation is about affirmative action (in US parlance). Trying to give some sort of equal opportunity to people (98%) who were subjugated, denied education, and exploited by so called Forward Castes in India who constitute only 2% of the total population for millenium. This reservation is in vogue for only 60 years how can this equation be achieved in such a short span of time. Now the Forward Castes are slowly waking up and cramming for their share in the available piece of cake. If heat is felt for this itself then what should the subjugated feel for having been so for a millenium in the name of MANU SMRITIs laws? People who believe so are as you had rightly (?) pointed out are HYPROCRITS and prisoners of their own conscience.
亲爱的Learned Singh,这篇文章没有提到预留制度,预留制度是一种平权运动(用美国的说法)。它可以给被占2%总人口的高等种姓剥削了上千年,没有机会接受教育,占人口98%的低种姓人一定程度的公平机会,预留制度刚才实施了60年,在这么短的时间内绝对公平是很难实现的。现在高种姓的人正慢慢觉醒,开始狼吞虎咽的享用他们的份额。如果有些人对这种制度反应都如此激烈,那么在《摩奴法典》教义下过了上千年的被征服者又应该做何感想?反对这种平权运动的人都是伪君子和不道德的人。
RM (MN) replies to ILA 9 Hours ago Excuses, excuses. Sixty years after Independence you're still making excuses for a quota system that has made Indian education into a pile of rubbish.
呵呵,独立已经60年了,你还在为把印度的教育弄得一团糟的预留制度找借口
Athena (London) 1 Day ago It is Imperial College and not Imperial University. Perhaps ET must invest in better human capital!
那是帝国理工学院而不是帝国大学,或许《经济时报》应该加大人力资源投入了。
(Hyderabad) 1 Day ago Same thing happened with me as well like akshay kumar. I thought i am reading my story.
我和阿克夏·库马的经历很相似,我还以为在读我自己的故事呢
Nihar (Mumbai) 1 Day ago It completely depends on which institution a person is studying in abroad. It is not so that somebody got a degree in a well recognized institution in foreign and unable to get a job in India. So I request "The Economic Times" to provide a proper interpretation to the reader.
这完全取决于个人在国外的哪个机构学习。一个人得到国外著名机构的学位,却不能在印度找到工作 ,这是不可能的。所以我要求经济时报对给读者一个合理的解释。
kshi S (Bhopal) 1 Day ago coming to US was the worst decision of my life
来美国是我一生最错误的决定
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B Venky Venky (Bangalore) 1 Day ago Very informative article. To have world class universities in India, the government should get out of the way. The quota raj in higher education has to stop. More and more private funds has to be garnered towards higher education by giving tax sops. But all this remains in the realm of fiction at the moment.
非常有教育意义的文章。印度如果想要建设世界一流的大学,政府就不能介入。高等教育的配额制度必须终止。通过给予税收方面的优惠,吸引更多的私人基金投入到高等教育中来。不过到现在为止,这还还都是痴人说梦。
ketan m (mumbai) 1 Day ago study there, work here. sounds great!
出国留学,回国工作,看上去不错!
thomas (india) 1 Day ago Yes, every Indian should go overseas for education - build up net work..learn how other s think..their style-quality etc. come back and start self employed business ... it will flourish. take example from china who are into A to Z of business and industries ,they make impossible happen...of course duly and completely supported by their govt..
我同意,每个印度人都应该去国外接受教育,这样可以建立人际关系,了解别人的思维模式,健康的生活习惯等,然后再回国创业,这样国家才能繁荣。就像中国一样,在各行各业里他们都创造了不可能的奇迹,当然,也离不开政府部门适时的大力支持。
Saswata mandal (kolkata) 1 Day ago still every good student wants to go abroad.. why is it like that??
为什么所有的好学生仍然都想着出国?
Nanda Kumar (Chennai, Tamil Nadu) replies to Saswata mandal 1 Day ago ET pointed it out already..Global Exposure! and Farther mountains always seem smoother :)
金融时报已经指出来了。。。他们希望能在国际上露脸!因为外国的月亮比较圆 :)
Anupam (Bangalore) replies to Saswata mandal 1 Day ago Quick money
想赚快钱呗
Mumbaikar (Mumbai) 1 Day ago It's not entirely the kids fault - some ambitious parents push out the kids too - 'we don't think there is a future here', they say. Now, some are stuck abroad and need to return home, as countries are on an economic downturn and/or are looking more inward now, . Complicated situation - but opportunities are here too, if you want to grab them. Not everything here is as bad as you may think.
不完全是孩子们的错,一部分雄心勃勃的家长们把他们的孩子推到了火山口。家长们总会说:”我们在这看不到未来。”现在,由于外国经济的不景气以及现在他们更看重本土的学生,留学生在国外没出路,所以只能回国。情况很复杂,但是如果你想要,国内同样有机会。国内情况并非你想象的那么糟糕。
Bharath Selvan Sukumaran (Chennai) 1 Day ago Good news for India. Let their knowledge be used for Indians in India
对印度来说是个好消息。他们学成之后可以回来造福印度人民。
jgsemig (Delhi110007) 2 Days ago what about large numbers of foreign students studying in India? How could IIM-B professor be so insensitive? In a global world does this mean that Indian educational Institutions have already thrown in their towels? Does it also mean that Universities like SAARC and others have no futures?
也有很多外国学生在印度留学啊。 为什么印度管理学院班加罗尔分校(Indian Institutes of Management) 的教授们这么愚钝。从全球范围来看,是不是这就意味着印度的教育机构已经宣布投降了?类似南亚区域合作联盟(South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation)这类的学校就没有前途了吗?
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Sriram B (Bharat) 2 Days ago Learn Globally and be back to improve India. Just as they say wait till the last ball is bowled in a cricket frenzy country; do not lose hope till you have tried your hands on what you want to transform the country into.
出国深造回来为祖国效力,在这个痴迷于板球运动的国家里,就像人们所说的不到最后一球都不能言败;在尝试做一些让我们的国家变得更好地事情之前,也不要放弃希望。
Ajay Kumar (NYC) 2 Days ago Only the people who have earned admissions into Indian Universities based on reservations, face problems studying abroad, as they are looking for concessions always. People who have earned admissions throughout based on their capability and knowledge, do not face any problem. Such students do not come back.
只有那些依靠配额进入印度大学的人在出国留学学习时会面临问题,因为他们一直在寻求被特殊对待。而依靠自己能力和知识进入大学的人不会面临这些问题。这些学生也不会回国的
Ayush Jha (NOIDA) 2 Days ago Study in the US(OUT OF INTEREST in the field and/or spectrum, NOT parental pressure/peer pressure) , Work to repay the loans & then do your own startup in India. All the best :)
在美国学习(自己兴趣使然,而不是受到父母或者同龄人的压力),工作付清借款,然后在印度开始自己的事业,祝好运 :)
Mukesh Mishra (Haridwar) 2 Days ago It didn't work. My good grades made me eligible for plenty of jobs, but my non-European Indian passport was the problem," he shrugs.
他耸耸肩说:“没用的,我的成绩足够好让我可以得到很多工作,但是我的非欧洲的印度护照才是问题的关键。”
Ashwani Kaushal (New Delhi) 2 Days ago righly said, getting an addmission in DU colleages are like dreaming in day time.... it is always good to go abroad and get certification and return back... but once the indian student get a better envoironment and facility abroad why they come back to corrupt indian culture, only few with family business background will come to share the same plateform with their parental company ....shamful for Indian corruption
说得对,要想进入德里大学无异于白日做梦。出国留学获得学位然后回印度总归是好的,但是,既然印度学生在国外有更好的环境和设施,他们怎么会回到腐败的印度呢,只有很少一部分有家族企业背景的人回国继承父母的产业,对印度的腐败感到羞愧。
Parthipan K (Chennai) 2 Days ago I agree with the fact that Indian Universities are not flexible. But intelligent students can acquire knowledge of any subjects of their own. So they should not blame Indian Universities. More over, not all institutes in abroad are of high standards. Even in Ivy schools, the standards are coming down like our IITs. My opinion is that if one works hard in Indian top universities, they can acquire global standards. Also all the premier institutes in US are putting their course material in the web and hence, by going thru them one can acquire high knowledge.
我同意印度的大学不够灵活。但是聪明的学生可以靠自己得到任何学科的知识。所以他们不应该抱怨印度的大学。另外,并不是所有的外国机构都有很高的水准,甚至常春藤大学也正下降到印度理工学院的水准。我想说的是,如果一个人在印度一流大学里足够努力,那么他可以达到世界级的水准。另外美国一些著名大学把他们的课程放在网上,因此通过网上课程我们可以得到尖端的知识。
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Economic factors that affect the Forex market  FX News trading Tani tutorial explained in English Factors Affecting Forex Market Kannst Du einen Trend korrekt einzeichnen?  Strategie zur Trenderkennung im Markt  deutsch Factors That Influence Forex Market Trends Factors That Influence Forex Market Trends signals analysis Factors That Influence Forex Market Trends The Foreign Exchange Market- Macro 6.3 - YouTube

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Economic factors that affect the Forex market FX News trading Tani tutorial explained in English

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